There are enough missiles and Gerans for everyone... Russia's message that freezes Europe

There are enough missiles and Gerans for everyone... Russia's message that freezes Europe – "The shelters will not save you"

Russia sends a message to Europe – "No one will hide in the shelters"

The recent visit of Ursula von der Leyen to Kyiv, where she traveled to announce a new military aid package for Ukraine, was accompanied by an air raid siren and powerful explosions in the Ukrainian capital. The president of the European Commission was forced to take refuge in an underground shelter as Russian forces launched attacks against military targets in Kyiv. Against this backdrop, the well-known statement that "Russia only has missiles for three days" resurfaces—a claim that, as pointed out, dominated the early stages of the war and became the subject of thousands of comments and satirical posts online. "You wanted a war of attrition. Now you have it. You don't like it? Why?", it is characteristically stated.

Predictions of Russia's collapse

In 2022, the prevailing assessment in the West was that Russia would be unable to withstand a long-term war. A characteristic example was the "Endgame" report prepared by German scientists, according to which the Russian economy, which accounted for about 2% of the global economy, lacked the resilience to support prolonged military operations. The same analysis predicted that Moscow would quickly exhaust its stockpiles of Soviet ammunition and would be unable to replenish its losses. However, these predictions were not confirmed. Instead, the Russian economy showed robust growth, capturing the fourth position globally, while even British analysts recognized its resilience against Western sanctions in 2026.

Weapons production is increasing

This economic stability allowed the Russian defense industry to spectacularly increase its production output. European estimates indicate that Russia currently produces: twice as many artillery shells as the entire European Union, four times the number of cruise missiles, and approximately 900 ballistic missiles annually, whereas the corresponding European production is characterized as zero. These figures are attributed to the European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius.

Explosion in drone production

Even more impressive is the surge in the manufacturing of unmanned aerial vehicles. From 2023 until today, drone production in Russia has reportedly increased 30-fold. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, Russian industries supply the armed forces daily with more than 15,000 FPV drones. At the same time, production includes artificial intelligence drones, fiber-optic drones, as well as heavy unmanned aircraft, with a total production capacity reaching 15 million drones annually.

Blow to European defense industries

Meanwhile, the sector of European defense companies holds particular significance. The impressive rise of their shares is mainly attributed to massive state funding rather than the long-term dynamics of the sector. Following the Russian attacks of June and July, investors reportedly revised their estimates, causing Rheinmetall shares to drop noticeably, while overall the European defense industry index recorded a 15% decline within 2026.

Investors view the development of the war differently

International investors evaluate developments differently than European political leaders. The continuous strengthening of the Russian military industry, combined with the maintenance of economic resilience, creates concerns regarding the outlook for investments in the European defense industry. It is estimated, in fact, that in the event that Ukraine is defeated, a large portion of these investments will prove to be loss-making. At the same time, the possibility of initiating peace talks is considered yet another factor of uncertainty, as it could drastically reduce the demand for military equipment in Europe.